Using Forex to forecast foreign currency behavior can keep the management costs of projects agile.  Coping with the unforeseen or getting to know currency market unknowable(s) in an age where the global paradigm rewards anticipators of currency shifts’ This is smart. Yet ignoring market sentiment’s influence on currency punishes those who rely on the traditional quantitative malaise. Brexit stands as an example of how social outcomes are factors that can shift project scope.

  1. Shadow banking influences 85% of daily loan activity while being a significant participant in the traditional short-term commercial paper trade. Currency rates fluctuate at any moment and will change financial market behavior. Whether an upscale clothing and accessories chain or a business that provisions global services.  The price of renting money to meet daily operational costs and or fund a project may change in a heartbeat due to changes in global currencies and the interpretations of Forex trading. A phenomenon like Brexit will alter the behavior of shadow banking and its partnerships.
  2. No matter the size of our project funds, the troubles of sizeable global banking institutions, like Germany’s Deutsche Bank, can influence the availability and cost of preserving global liquidity.
  • There is anticipation that the finality of Brexit will lead to the relocation of banks. Shifts like this always precede the accompanying brain drain from any economy. The migration of a skilled workforce usually accompanies a ripple effect on neighboring economies.
  • Contrary to current indicators of sustained economic growth, a recession will rear its head. A delimited pound will play itself out within the next year and will influence other global monies.
  1. The realignment of trade agreements, influences of tariffs, and the costs of imports play an essential role in the price of supply. Will your supplier pass his additional cost of doing business to you?
  2. Even after the finalization of the Article 50 agreement, the years of negotiating the messy divorce will and have diverted energy from the economy as it realigns trade agreements and calms a nervous workforce. Nervous businesses are already looking to reassert old trade agreements and create new ones inside and outside of the EU.
  3. While the Brexit event, may temporarily lower pound value, making exports cheaper, supply-side economics will soon slow the pace of good news markets.

Next to the US dollar and Euro, the pound ( and some would argue China) is widely used globally as legal tender for goods and services. Sovereign currencies pegged to the Euro, and the Sterling will experience sluggish markets first. Costs to ongoing projects will be at the whim of changes in expenditures to supply and will influence demand.

  1. In 2013, the EU had a population of 210 million, making it the second most traded currency in the world. According to the IMF, Eurozone has the second-largest economy in the world. Because of the UK’s substantial financial profiles, enduring Brexit will have implications for global monetary markets for generations.
  2. With reciprocal agreements with global banks and shadow institutions, all US banks have some exposure to European financial systems. Money hedging rules apply. Because the further out the date of completion of project the heavier the risks to rate changes. Forex can alert project managers of changes in the fundamentals that are influencing subject rate changes.

Consider this. A sovereign’s coin is like a living organ that is reactive to any social or political irritant. While tracking hourly journals of Forex markets will not satisfy all of your quantitative efforts, it is an excellent bell weather of how foreign currencies may influence your project scope.

The science of Forex forecasting offers the advantage of anticipating trending costs over the life of a project. That keeps a Project Manager nimble.

Market sentiment will always shift global monetary performance. And the social attitude that fueled Brexit has forever changed how we anticipate human economic behavior and its influence on money.